Winning With Mutual Funds
A mutual fund (called ‘unit trust’ in Asia) is an investment vehicle that pools money from many individual investors. A professional fund manager invests and manages these funds into stocks, bonds and other securities.
People usually invest in mutual funds because it is offers the advantage of broad diversification (it spreads your money over tens or hundreds of stocks to reduce risk) and professional management. However, do remember that as broad diversification reduces risks, it also reduces return.
First, here is the bad news. If you speak to most people who have invested in unit trusts in Asia (especially Singapore) or in mutual funds, most would report losing money or just earning measly returns of 2%-4%. In fact, in the year 2004, it was reported in the Straits Times that 559,000 Singaporeans lost $680 million by investing their CPF in these funds. By going to the largest unit trust distributor Asia, you can easily calculate that only 6% of unit trusts beat the S&P 500 over a ten-year period. What are the chances of you placing your bet on this 6%? Chances are you would have had lower returns that the index, while still having to pay those hefty sales charges and annual management fees.
How about the US mutual fund market? On average, less than 10% of mutual funds beat the S&P 500 index each year! What’s worse is that it is a different 10% each year. Less than 3% of mutual funds are able to beat the S&P 500 Index over a five to ten year period. So again, what are the chances of you beating the market through betting on the right fund? Only 3%! You have better odds at the Black Jack table. The worse thing is that the fund manager gets paid an annual management fee whether or not the fund makes money.
Why is it so difficult for most people to make money in mutual funds? There are four main reasons.
1) High Sales Charges & Management Fees
Most people buy mutual funds through banks and financial institutions at retail prices where there is a sales charge (front load) and high annual management fees (expense ratios).
In Asia, most banks & financial institutions sell unit trusts with a sales charge of 5%-6% and with annual fees of 1.5%-2%. It means that before you even begin, you are down 6.5%-8% on your investment and will be down another 1.5% every year. Your fund must outperform the S&P 500 by 6.5%-8% just to make it worth your while! Again, less than 10% of funds worldwide can achieve this every year and less than 3% can achieve this over five years.
2) Buying the Hottest Performing Funds
Most people choose funds based on high short-term returns. These are the funds that are normally pushed and advertised by financial retailers. They feature impressive and enticing returns like ‘This fund was up +65% in the last six months’.
The fact is that the best short-term performing funds tend to also be big losers in the subsequent years and long term. Why? Because these funds tend to be invested in hot stocks or hot sectors where the stocks have been rising rapidly and fund managers buy, riding on the momentum. That is why they post very spectacular returns. However, strong buying activity tend to push these stocks to be overvalued and sure enough, the stocks will come crashing down in the next few years. Mutual funds that consistently beat the S&P 500 tend to be invested in non-hot sectors and do not post spectacular short-term returns.
3) Limited Selection of Unit Trusts Locally
If you are in Asia, then you are normally exposed to only a limited number of unit trusts. A check with fundsupermart.com (the largest Asian unit trust distributor) shows that there are just about 300 funds available here compared to over 8,000 funds in the US market.
When I made a search on the Top Performing Fund sold locally (year 2005), I was presented with ‘Fidelity America USD’ with a 10-year annualized return of 11.27%. (Recall that the S&P 500 returned 12.08% a year). So, even the top-performing fund couldn’t beat the S&P 500 after deducting expenses & fees!!
4) Lack of Research Knowledge, Data & Tools
The single most important reason why investors lose money in mutual funds
is because they don’t have the knowledge or necessary information to search for the top 3% of consistent performing funds at the lowest costs. Investors tend to buy on the advice of their bank managers, facts from the fund fact sheet or prospectus which does not provide enough information to select the right fund.
Adam Khoo is an entrepreneur, best-selling author and a self-made millionaire by the age of 26. Discover his million dollar secrets and claim your FREE bonus report ‘Get Out Of The Rat Race Now’ at http://www.SecretsOfSelf-MadeMillionaires.com
Dont Let Your Investments Control You
Which of your investments worried you most during the recent market correction? If it was one of your smaller holdings, you’re not alone.
We all have only so much time and so many brain cells to devote to investing. If you’re focusing yours on a tiny portion of your investments, the majority of your net worth is going unwatched.
Many investors I speak with are focused on only one or two of their investments or, worse, are fixated on the one they sold which has since gone up in price. Have you ever taken a flier? Bought a few shares of something on a tip?
Stop and ask yourself: suppose this purchase doubles or triples, what impact will it have on your net worth? It will be insignificant. And, any change to your net worth will be dwarfed by the movement of your primary investments.
Let’s put some numbers to this. If you have a stock or mutual fund which is 1% of your total portfolio and it doubles in value, it’s now only 2% of your total holdings. Your net worth has only increased by 1%. And, let’s face it, despite what we think, it’s unlikely that many (or even a few) of our investments will double over the short term.
The key to building a strong investment portfolio is to set your goals and diversify, but not have so many investments you can’t follow and to avoid investments which are too small to be meaningful. Here are some rules of thumb: no stock or bond should be less than 2% of your portfolio.
No mutual fund should be less than 5%. If you’re uncomfortable holding that much of a particular stock or fund, the investment is too risky for you and you shouldn’t own any of it. Think about the 2% and 5% guidelines for a minute.
If you own only stocks, that would be a 50 stock portfolio, a lot of stocks for anyone to follow. It would be 20 mutual funds. In both cases, more securities than you need to achieve diversification. So the above percentages are only minimums.
The maximum holding for a stock should be 5%, that’s 5% of your net worth tied to the fortunes of one company (remember Enron, if you’re wondering why).
For mutual funds, the bigger and safer the fund’s investment focus, the more you can invest in it. Bigger and safer means, for example, Big Cap stocks for both domestic and foreign funds, investment grade bonds and US Treasuries. To be conservative, you should put no more that 10% of your next worth into any one fund.
This brings us to index funds. If it’s a fund mirroring a big index, i.e., the S&P 500, the Lehman bond index, the Morgan Stanley Japanese stock index, you can invest more than 10% in a single fund. If it is a smaller index, i.e., the technology sector, the 5% rule applies.
Diversify, but don’t have so many investments that you can’t follow them all. Avoid investments which are so small they won’t make a difference. Focus on the big picture; don’t let the tail wag the dog.
Bill Byrnes is a co-founder of MUTUALdecision (http://www.mutualdecision.com). A former investment banker and finance professor, he has been CEO, chairman and served on the boards of a number of public companies. Bill is a CFA with over 30 years investment experience.
Investing: Dow Drops 2700 Points
It’s a headline that every stock market investor fears will happen. The markets crash and their hard-earned nest egg evaporates. They’re forced to go back to work and must resort to eating beans and rice. Is that fear justified? No.
Stock markets around the world dropped on Tuesday. The news media echoed that it was the biggest one-day drop since September 11th, 2001. The Chinese stock market dropped almost 10%. Here in the U.S., the major indexes were down over 3%. At one point the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped over 150 points in one minute!
Should investors panic? No. The world is not coming to an end. The world’s economies continue to be strong and are growing. Interest rates are still low compared to historical standards. And yesterday’s decline follows 7 months where the markets recorded increases of 15%, 25%, 40%, and even 77%.
First, let’s put yesterday’s drop in proper perspective. I remember watching the ticker back in 1987 when the stock market tumbled. It’s something that I will never forget and is one of the reasons I have developed the systems and strategies I use to manage my client’s money today.
On Tuesday the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped a little over 400 points. To equal the market drop in 1987, Tuesday’s total decline would need to be 2700 points. Tuesday, the Dow dropped 3%. In 1987 it dropped around 20%!
Second, there are going to be times when the markets make rapid adjustments. This applies not just to the stock markets, but to bond and real-estate markets as well. The introduction of electronic trading and the proliferation of hedge funds only add to volatility.
That may have been what occurred yesterday. Hedge funds can be leveraged as much as 30:1. That means if they have one dollar, they borrow thirty dollars more and invest it all. If the markets go up, a hedge fund can make enormous returns. If the markets drop too much then they get a ‘margin call’. That’s when those that lent the money decide they want it back–right away.
When someone trading on margin receives a margin call, typically they have to sell investments to generate the cash needed to cover the call. When you’re leveraged 30:1, it means you have to sell a lot of investments. Hundreds of millions of dollars can be sold in a matter of minutes with the use of electronic trading. That selling causes the market to go down, which causes others to receive margin calls. So they then have to sell.
Many of today’s mutual fund managers haven’t experienced a decline like 1987 or 2001. Initially, they hang in there. But as the markets drop further they succumb to the fear and decide to start dumping investments. In my opinion, that’s why the sell off picked up speed Tuesday afternoon.
That brings me to my second point. Who’s watching your money? When things go bad they can go bad in a hurry. That’s why it is so important that you know there is someone who is closely monitoring your money and will take action if necessary to protect it.
Unlike most managers, I employ multiple strategies in each account. Some are short-term, some medium term and others long-term. Days like yesterday illustrate the benefits of this multi-strategy approach. The money in short-term strategies was quickly moved to cash. Some sales actually took place the day before the big drop. Others occurred shortly after trading started. If 25% of an account is quickly moved to cash in such instances, that reduces the overall risk to the portfolio substantially.
Third, it’s important that you be selective in what you sell. Liquidating short-term positions allows me to hold on to high-dividend paying stocks and other investments that should comfortably weather the storm. Even if the market languishes, I hold strategies that pay dividends of 6-9%.
Lastly, after the market closed yesterday I saw a picture of a U.S. soldier carrying an Iraqi child needlessly killed. I talked with a client who was undergoing additional testing to see if she has cancer.
While it’s my job to monitor and manage my client’s money and your job to safeguard your nest egg, it’s important to remember in the end, there are things in life that are much more important than money.
Nationally-syndicated financial columnist and Certified Financial Planner Jeffrey Voudrie provides personal, in-depth money management services and advice to select private clients throughout the USA. He will answer your financial question FREE. at http://www.guardingyourwealth.com
Earnings Matter: S&P and Stock Market Investing
The S&P 500 is up about 7.5% thus far this year. That’s a good return for just over six months. Will it keep going up? Consider this. The earnings of the S&P 500 companies are expected to grow by about 5% in 2007, according to a leading Wall Street brokerage firm. That means if the market was fairly valued at the beginning of 2007 and there were no big changes as to how investors think about the market, the S&P should only go up by 5% in 2007. Hence, game over. Come back next year.
But wait! Let’s examine each of the above assumptions. Was the S&P fairly valued at the beginning of 2007? Well, for the 12 months ended June 2007, it’s up 22%, so it had a pretty good run in the second half of last year and considering that 2006 was the fourth year of the current economic expansion, it’s likely the S&P was around fair value at the beginning of 2007. Okay, but doesn’t the market discount the future? And aren’t all the Wall Street analysts talking about 2008 earnings? Yes to both (although December 31, 2008 is 18 months away, so maybe there’s some uncertainty). 2008 S&P earnings are projected to grow by 7.5%. Amazing, the same percentage the S&P is up this year. I could end this report right now but I think it’s a coincidence.
I don’t know how far into the future investors look or whether they’re looking at 2007 or 2008 earnings. Either way, though, there’s not much of a case to be made for further gains in the S&P unless theress multiple expansion. (The P/E multiple has to expand when stock prices grow faster than earnings.)
So, will P/E multiples expand and the S&P continue to go up? Depends upon what makes multiples expand. Common factors include accelerating earnings growth (I don’t think 5% to 7.5% qualifies), an improving economic outlook (balance of trade, energy prices, inflation), or a reduction in interest rates. The last one’s a two edge sword. If interest rates fall (the Fed cuts rates) because of declining inflation expectations, that’s bullish (along with an expanding economy that’s the goldilocks scenario). If the Fed cuts rates because the economy is slowing down, that’s not good. A Fed cut for good reasons appears unlikely.
Thus, the S&P is likely to be flat to down over the next few months, until earnings growth is ready to take it higher.
Bill Byrnes is a co-founder of MUTUALdecision (http://www.mutualdecision.com). A former investment banker and finance professor, he has been CEO, chairman and served on the boards of a number of public companies. Bill is a CFA with over 30 years investment experience.